It Won't Have the Desired Effect

We've become a nation of causes. The enviroment, phthalates in our plastic things, soft drinks, gay marriage and a living wage It's still coming up in the media, the topic of a wage increase to $15/hr for fast food service workers. Nothing the government comes up with will have the desired effect and here is why.

Here's a scenario:

On a busy street in a large city there is situated 10 restaurants. They are on both sides of the street and vary in tastes/offerings. In no particular order:

1. McDonalds
2. Burger King,
3. KFC/Taco Bell
4. Wendy's
5. Friendly's
6. Dunkin' Donuts
7. Great Wall Super China Buffet
8. Thai Express
9. Bagels and More
10. Joe's Hot Diggity Dogs

These restaurants have carved out a little chunk of the business and burble along happily making enough to survive a faltering economy. Then along comes Uncle Sam and imposes an immediate raise to all food service workers at $15/hr. Interesting things are about to happen behind the scenes that we never see. First, Mcdonalds, Burger King, KFC/Taco Bell, Wendy's, Friendly's and Dunkin' Donuts reduce the number of staff on a shift (ie get rid of people). Then they all begin to adjust menu and prices, no more dollar menu and it's becoming less affordable to take the family out for dinner. Friendly's is the first to shut the doors and close up shop, people lose their jobs. Mcdonald's, Burger King, KFC/Taco Bell and Wendy's all experience drops in patronage, which causes more lay offs and higher pricing.

Interestingly, Great Wall Super China Buffet, Thai Express, Bagels and More and Joe's Hot Diggity Dogs appear to be operating the same. If we look a little deeper it becomes apparent why. You see, Great Wall Super China Buffet and Thai Express utilizes undocumented workers. A handful of employees are on the books while quietly behind the scenes three times that amount are toiling away for under the table cash. I'm not just talking about illegal aliens, but also desperate people who want to work and will even take $8 cash under the table to survive. This allows Great Wall Super China Buffet and Thai Express to appear relatively stable as compared to the businesses that adhere to the laws.

Bagels and More and Joe's Hot Diggity Dogs seem to be business as usual as well, but behind the scenes we see that Bagels and More is a family owned operation. No outside the family labor is used and they have changed to a salary model for compensation so that the $15 an hour doesn't apply. It does however put a strain on family life and what used to be a happy family business starts to cause rifts within the family. The family begins to question whether or not their collective dream is worth the struggle anymore. They are considering closing up shop. Joe's Hot Diggity Dogs is family owned as well, but because it's got a limited menu, only Joe himself and his wife Jill work there. They used to have four other employees that they utilized on varying shifts to get away from the business and do paperwork, or even a vacation or two, but now Joe and Jill are working open to close five days a week. They are putting in 15 hours a day, 5 days a week. 75hrs a week, then add up the paperwork for each week that runs up into the 10 to 15 hour range, oh and don't forget the weekly deliveries that come Tuesday and Thursday that needs someone on site at 6am open for business at 10:30am. Joe and Jill easily clock 90 to 100 hours a week each.

Across the country franchises start to fail. No longer able to offer affordable food and exceptional service, franchise owners decide to get out of the business altogether. McDonald's, Burger King, KFC/Taco Bell and Wendy's all close up. Great Wall Super China Buffet and Thai Express continue business with more undocumented workers despite being raided by ICE several times. There seems to be no shortage of people that will work under the table now that all the national fast food places are closing. Bagels and More has closed because patronage dropped sharply after a few loud arguments within the family workers during business hours. Word gets around fast and people don't want to be part of that scene. Joe and Jill got a divorce. Joe's Hot Diggity Dogs sits empty and dark awaiting it's fate from the divorce judge.

Things are looking up though, a Mexican restaurant has leased the old McDonald's. An immigrant entrepeneur, Jose Juarez, has begun the process of opening up! Once he wades through the myriad of governmental beauracracies for licensing and ponies up the $200,000 in start up costs, he'll undoubtedly fill his back end with a few highly skilled employees!! Of course, Jose has a very large family back in Guatamala! It would be remiss of him not to have them come to take part in his wonderful venture! Wading through the myriad of governmental beauracracies has taught Jose to stay clear of the man and encourages his family to find other methods to enter this great country.

So this once bustling street, with 10 choices for food, now gives you the choice between Chinese, Thai and possibly future Mexican. All the food service workers whom used to work on the street are all gone. A few work for the Great Wall Super China Buffet and Thai Express for the same wage they made at the other places but under the table and not contributing to their Social Security, Medicare or taxes. The only franchise that survives is Dunkin' Donuts because, let's face it, people still got to have their Dunkin'! These three out of ten restaurants are feeling the pinch as well because of all the vacant businesses people tend to steer clear of that area. It just doesn't look appetizing anymore.

It might look good on paper, but I don't know too many liberals that run their own business. The unions would love to corner the fast food sector. It would bring great, if fleeting, power to the unions again. It took fifty years, but look what the unions have done to the manufacturing sector in this nation.

That's my two cents, spend 'em or put 'em in the dish for the next person.

Climate Change re-revisited

I recently caught the show Cosmos with Neil Degrasse Tyson and though I very much respect his stature in the scientific community, I respectfully disagree with his stand on current co2 issues as a problem. I'm not sure if he really truly buys into the rhetoric or if some how he's been recruited to 'fight the good fight' along side the many public figures that choose anthropogenic global warming as their cause du jour. It's very difficult to believe a scientist that so easily recites flawed science as fact.

I recently read a great article in the July/August 2014 issue of Analog: Science Fiction and Fact. The article was 'Spanking Bad Data Won't Make Them Behave, by Michael F. Flynn' that goes on to discuss how facts are postulated through theory and how those facts can be interpreted differently by others. It really lays out a good argument against the global warming theory. The author makes a pretty good case that all theories are subject to dismissal if put in context against dissenting data of a conflicting theory.

There are several ways to collect data, but all collection methods can be subject to issues given the parameters of the sample set. You see if you were to take climate change numbers for example, CO2 being the one always quoted, the numbers currently seem to be on the rise. A sudden sharp rise from about the 1960s to now. If we look at how those samples were taken we also see a direct correlation with the evolution of transistors, a key component in the measuring equipment of CO2. Kind of makes you think does it not? Could the meteoric rise in measurable CO2 actually be a function of more efficient measuring equipment? Which brings us to 'Operational defintions'. The act of changing equipment, method and even operator can change the data. I would be very curious to compare notes with some of these climate scientists who champion CO2 as a deciding factor of this change.

Every 100,000 years or so there is a noticeable spike in CO2 levels that is followed by a cooling period. Guess how many years ago the last spike occurred? They like to point to this data and jump up and down at their 'EUREKA!!' moment because of the 100ppm higher spike than the fossil record. This is where the issues with data comes into play. There are several ways that data can 'behave badly'. Usually this behavior is driven by the collection methods. Judgement and Convenience samples are sometimes what skews the data. It's be proven that global warming data has been subject to both of these data killers. According to the data they have used there have been swings from a high of 7000ppm to a low of 180ppm. It is near impossible to measure past CO2 levels accurately because all samples are subject to 'Convenience' data contamination. You can't just fly back a million years ago and take a measurement at the Mauna Loa Observatory can you? So all of the samples are samples of convenience. They had to get them where they could and it was not a broad spectrum analysis. Currently we are using data from a near volcanic(source of CO2) equatorial site and the fossil records are all from polar regions. It's very difficult to put these data sets in the same column.



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To quote the article from Flynn, "Probabilities depend on statistical model applied, and for an unstable process there may be no model. Even for stable processes, the appropriate model may not be the normal; yet many folks use the good ol' Bell Curve as a substitute for thought." There are too many variables to use strictly CO2 as deciding factor of climate change. We do not completely understand the other factors being that our knowledge of how our climate works is still in it's infancy. Best models peg water vapor at being the largest contributor to global warming and the percentage swings from 36 to 70%. Quite a variation huh? How can you build a reliable model on a 100% variation? I don't expect my views to change the world. I do expect it to broaden horizons, to spark dialog and question the status quo. The question we should be trying to answer isn't how do we stop global warming. The real question should be, "Who profits from it?". 

That's my two cents, spend 'em or put 'em in the dish for the next person.